** notes on replication materials ** 

	All data and code needed to reproduce the figures in the main text are included as are the data and code needed to estimate the model the figures are built from. That model, however, takes a VERY long time to converge, likely over 24 hours depending upon your machine, so be sure to that into account when beginning estimation. The main model results ARE NOT in the main text of the manuscript, but in appendix in table A2.3.
	
	In model estimation code, however, we have also included a more simple model which ignores the hierarhical data structure. This model takes only a few minutes to estimate.
	

	
